Predictions for 2009

I am not a soothsayer but just the same, I’d like to make some predictions of my own for 2009. Here goes:

1) The "Hello Garci" scandal will have no closure, especially with the latest Supreme Court decision saying that the Senate cannot re-open its probe on the matter.

2) Lintang Bidol will not go to jail for his "a la Garci" transgression.

3) Former Comelec chairman Benjamin Abalos will not go to jail either for his role in the ZTE-NBN deal or the computerization scam in the Comelec.

4) There will be no closure to the North and South Rail scams.

5) Former NEDA head and now SSS chief Romulo Neri will not admit to calling his benefactor Ms. Gloria Arroyo "evil."

6) Albay Governor Joey Salceda will not dare call Ms. Arroyo a "lucky bitch" again.

7) There will be no closure to the fertilizer scam involving former agriculture undersecretary Jocelyn "Joke Joke" Bolante. He will, therefore, not go to jail.

8) There will be no closure either to the so-called swine scam.

9) None of the "euro generals" will go to jail notwithstanding the overwhelming evidence against them.

10) GSIS head Winston Garcia will not pay the accrued pension of some 700 old-age pensioners living in the United States and other countries. He will also not be able to address fully the innumerable complaints of members against his administration of the pension fund.

11) The Senate will not have the gumption to investigate the GSIS as requested by thousands of the latter’s members.

12) The opposition will again file impeachment charges against Ms. Arroyo when the one year prescription is and, as in the past, it will not prosper.

13) The so-called United Opposition will remain disunited.

14) The Senate will be probing all kinds of scandals, including those involving some of its members and, as usual, nothing will come out of them.

15) The lower house of Congress will not succeed in constituting itself into a Constituent Assembly (Con-Ass).

16) There will be no Cha-Cha.

17) Ms. Arroyo will not dare impose emergency rule. If she does, the people will rise.

Unlike professional soothsayers, I would rather that some of my predictions (Nos. 1 to 14) do not come true. On the other hand, I would be happy if Nos. 15 to 17 do.

***

I would hate to be in the shoes of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Rafael Seguis who has been named by Arroyo as chairman of the reconstituted Peace Panel to negotiate with the MILF. It would seem that Arroyo herself does not want him to succeed.

Obviously, Arroyo doesn’t realize the handicap that she imposed on Seguis by naming as a member of his panel someone who outranks him, Agrarian Reform Secretary Nasser Pangandaman. I don’t think I need to elaborate.

It’s a good thing Pangandaman figured in an incident involving his two sons that needn’t have happened had he used his good judgment. Arroyo now has the opportunity to rectify her mistake by having him replaced in Seguis’ panel. Either that or she replaces Seguis with someone of Cabinet rank. Giving Seguis the designation of secretary won’t do. Besides, it would be anomalous given his present official position as DFA Undersecretary for Special Concerns which, as things stand, is a bit of an anomaly in itself. Seguis’ position is not provided for in the revised Foreign Service Act, R.A. 7157.

***

Almost certainly without so much as a by-your-leave to his panel chair Seguis, Pangandaman has already been making statements to the press. He was quoted in one paper as saying: "Several countries have offered to broker the talks and since these are ongoing, I can’t identify them."

However, he confirmed that "Qatar is looking at how they can help us."

Now, if you were Seguis, would you feel comfortable telling Pangandaman to "first clear with me any statement about the peace talks"?

***

General Eduardo Ermita was reported to have said in his New Year message (since when does the executive secretary issue such a message?) that the government is ready to resume peace talks with the MILF this month. Fine. But is the panel ready?

According to a very reliable source, panel chair Seguis has not yet even convened the panel for a getting-to-know-you session, much less a strategy planning session. The chair must also first lay down the rules on how the panel and its members should operate, chart its negotiating parameters and, most importantly, make certain that he is vested with full authority and responsibility by Ms. Arroyo.

When all that is done, then the panel would be ready to negotiate. But will the MILF be?

***

The incident where Pangandaman’s two sons and their companions reportedly mauled 56-year-old Delfin de la Paz and his 14 year-old son at Valley Golf Club evoked public outrage and condemnation, particularly from bloggers.

"We’re being condemned left and right. It’s very painful for us. We’re very much affected by this… They should be sensitive to the feelings of others," Pangandaman told one newspaper.

Geez! And how does he think De la Paz and his family feel?

Has it not occurred to him that in his exalted position as a Cabinet member and as a father to his sons, he could have and should have stopped the mauling incident? If he cannot control his own sons from engaging in violence, how can he possibly help influence and convince the MILF to stop theirs?

***

US President-elect Barack Obama will have a multitude of problems both at home and abroad when he assumes office two weeks from now.

Foremost is of course the financial crisis. The Americans, the whole world, are looking up to him to come up with solutions. A tall order indeed.

But equally serious is the grim situation in Gaza. Already, nearly 500 Palestinians have been killed and thousands injured by Israeli bombing runs over the Hamas-held enclave. With the incursion of Israeli troops and artillery firing into Gaza , the situation is bound to get worse. Israel ’s unwarranted action that has been condemned around the world was in retaliation for the Hamas’ rocketing of Israeli territory that has resulted, it must be pointed out, in two deaths according to news reports. (Incidentally, I have not read or heard of any kind of statement from our government on the carnage going on in Gaza .)

Then there is the brewing India-Pakistan crisis brought about by the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai. If cooler heads do not prevail, the confrontation could lead to military clashes. The two countries have a long history of armed conflicts.

Another challenging foreign policy issue for Obama is Afghanistan. Even during his presidential campaign, he had said that the real problem is Afghanistan, not Iraq. I agree with him.

However, Obama’s stated policy of infusing more US troops into Afghanistan could well prove to be his first foreign policy mistake. Already, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, whom Obama has asked to remain in his post, has plans to send in 30,000 more US troops, in addition to the 31,000 now there.

Before getting deeper into the quagmire, Obama would do well to look at the Soviet experience. The Soviet adventure in Afghanistan nearly four decades ago contributed greatly to the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

Afghanistan is a country that has never really been governed by a strong central government. Only the unlamented Taliban regime came close to being one. The country is virtually run by warlords with whom the government in the capital Kabul deals. If the US has difficulty until now in Iraq, Afghanistan will be a lot more intractable and vexing. Eventually, US intervention will have to end, hopefully without losing face and at no tremendous cost.

***

As an academician, I am pleased that the lower house of Congress is likely to adopt a bill that will provide, among others, for: a) English, Filipino or the regional/native language may be used as the teaching language in all subjects from preschool to Grade 3, and b) English shall be the teaching language in all academic subjects from Grades 4 to 6, and in all levels of high school.

In my view, the continuing deterioration of our educational system is largely due to the decline in the English skills, both written and oral, of the vast majority of our studentry. The bill which hopefully will be passed by both houses of Congress soon, will definitely help us regain our primacy over our neighbors in the educational and, eventually, in the economic and political spheres.

Kudos to Congressman Eduardo Gullas for his initiative!

***

I nominate the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency’s Director General Dionisio Santiago and its head of Special Enforcement Service Major Ferdinand Marcelino as 2008 Public Servants of the Year.

***

Today is the 265th day of the second year of Jonas Burgos’ disappearance.

In July 2007, Senator Jinggoy Estrada filed a resolution urging the then Senate leadership to immediately direct the Senate committees on justice and human rights and national defense and security to carry out a joint probe of Jonas’ abduction which was allegedly perpetrated by elements of the military.

I wonder what has happened to that resolution.

***

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!

***

Email address: roacrosshairs@yahoo.com

Forty years of an
‘emergency’ measure

Editorial

‘Will the lesson never sink into the thick heads of our legislators?’

Had we not come across a proposal from a senator that the house rent control law be extended, we would not have not known that this "emergency" measure was still in the books after almost 40 years of existence.

But there it was. Rent control, one of the few remaining vestiges of economically distorting "pro-poor" initiatives of martial law, ended December 31. Instead of quietly burying the rotten carcass, here comes the senator proposing to give it new life.

Top of the head, we could not recall what the original ceiling was. If we are not mistaken it was around P2,000 a month, more or less the average rent for a standard two-bedroom in Quezon City in the early 1970s, with an allowable yearly escalation of 10 percent. It was supposed to be a temporary measure to cushion the poor and the lower middle class from the raging inflation at the time. Needless to say, those who had a nodding acquaintance with economics saw rent control as a deodorant to Ferdinand Marcos’ newly imposed one-man rule.

That "temporary" measure would last for another two generations. During the period that the law was in effect, the predictable result was that nobody in his right mind was building houses for rent at an amount falling within the limit. So what we have now are dwellings for the truly poor and the truly rich, with none for rent by the middle class.

It used to be that there was clearly defined route to home ownership. A newly-wed couple rented a room or an "entresuelo" then moving on to an apartment when the kids started coming. Much later, as income rose, buying a suburban bungalow became within reach. Another couple would occupy the newly vacated room or apartment. And so went the chain.

Now a newly-wed couple with a government employee for a breadwinner has either to move in with the parents or a multi-family dwelling in the squatter’s colony in the government center in Quezon City. In time, they might be able to move to a low-cost housing project somewhere in Bulacan, Laguna or Cavite and get hit in turn by the high cost of travel between work and home.

There is no mystery behind the lack of affordable decent housing. It’s elementary economics. No investor will place his money in a venture where he cannot hope to recoup his cost plus some reasonable return.

Will the lesson never sink into the thick heads of our legislators?